Wanderings – Questions for our next federal government
In less than a year, we will very likely have a new Prime Minister. Sometime between now and late October 2025, there will be a federal election, and maybe even sooner, a Liberal leadership change. Federal pollsters show a sizeable lead by the Pierre Poilievre-led Conservatives over the Justin Trudeau-led Liberals. If Trudeau decides to step down as party leader before the next election, it will only stall the inevitable. We will likely have a Conservative government by this time next year. With this likely outcome in mind, there are some questions that need answering.
If Trudeau leaves office—either by his choice or ours—what will happen to all those “Eff-Trudeau” flags and car stickers? Will the owners remove the stickers and take down the flags? A cottage industry formed during and after the trucker convoy in February 2022. If those businesses that produce the “Eff-Trudeau” flags, stickers, window decals, and other products go out of business, will the new government issue an economic aid package to help those affected?
After the change in government, how long will it be before new stickers and flags start appearing saying “Eff-Poilievre”? Will such stickers be as socially acceptable to the Canadian population as the “Eff-Trudeau” movement? Maybe those same businesses that produce the anti-Trudeau products could pivot to produce the anti-Poilievre products?
Who will Postmedia columnists line up to bash if Trudeau steps down or is voted out of office? There is a very long list of anti-Trudeau columnists who churn out wordy missives calling for the PM to go. Whatever will they cover when their obvious golden target disappears?
This could be seriously concerning for a newspaper chain looking to generate content to fill pages and websites across the country and these writers who will have nothing to write about. Maybe the publications could insert some colouring pages or an additional cartoon panel instead? Won’t someone think of the “legacy” print media?
I am worried about an eventual Conservative win at the polls. No, this is not because I work in the traditional media industry. An industry which receives some subsidies from the federal government. And it’s not because of possible cuts to programs and services. I am worried for the axe suppliers. Poilievre has said he is going to “Axe the Tax,” but once it’s axed, the party won’t need to buy more axes. I guess the forestry industry will have to get busy to keep those manufacturers in business.
Another thing I am worried about is how long it will take for a new Poilievre government to get to work on its own political plans.
The usual governing cycle has an incoming government (regardless of the level) spending about 12 months dismantling the programs and policies of the outgoing government. This is followed by another six to twelve-month period of still blaming the previous government for all the financial “oopsies” the new government “uncovers.” After that 18 to 24-month period, the new government pivots, throws out a bunch of cabinet ministers, gets serious about “tackling the real work,” and starts putting its own agenda in place. Based on the hubris of Poilievre and his party, is there enough time in his first mandate to complete dismantling the last three terms of Trudeau’s government? Maybe.
The one thing I am not worried about in this election is the lack of voter engagement. Our voter turnout will consist only of the really engaged people who have already decided who they are voting for, or those who are paying attention out of a sense of civic duty.
Sadly, due to our antiquated first-past-the-post voting system, a minority of supporters from across Canada will decide who is elected to a majority government. No matter who forms the government, a majority of Canadians didn’t vote for them. In that sense, no election is really a change election.
This column was originally published in the October 30, 2024 print edition of the Morrisburg Leader.